Published: 3 February 2012

• There was a net annual PLT migration loss of 1,900 people in the year to December 2011.
• There was a seasonally adjusted net outflow of 500 people this month.
• Annual net migration is forecast to return to a net gain by 2013.

Figure 1: Annual net PLT migration

Source: Statistics New Zealand

Data table for Figure 1

Figure 2: Monthly net PLT migration

Source: Statistics New Zealand

Data table for Figure 2

Annual net migration loss continues, driven by rising departures

There were 84,200 arrivals and 86,000 departures over the year to December 2011, resulting in a net loss of 1,900 people (see Figure 1). This net loss is the highest since the year ended August 2001 (4,400). Although PLT arrivals rose by 2.1% over the year to December 2011, PLT departures increased by significantly more (up 19.5%). A total of 59,600 New Zealanders left the country, up from 45,700 a year ago (up 30.4%). Australia remains the most common destination for departing New Zealanders with 45,900 departing for Australia over the year to December 2011, up from 32,200 a year ago (up 42.5%).

Monthly net migration continued its net loss

There was a net outflow of 500 people in December 2011 (seasonally adjusted), compared to a net loss of 100 people last month. This was mainly due to fewer arrivals (down 5.8%). Monthly migration has shown a net loss since March 2011, except for a short-lived net inflow of 100 people in August 2011 (see Figure 2). However, departures from the greater Christchurch area have stabilised. Seasonally adjusted (by the Department of Labour) departures from the greater Christchurch area (Christchurch city, Selwyn District, and Waimakariri District) were 800, a similar level to the previous two months.

PLT migration is forecast to return to a net gain by 2013

Department of Labour expects PLT departures to Australia to increase in early 2012 due to the lagged effects of the recent strength in the Australian labour market. However, the Australian labour market is showing signs of slowing, and as employment prospects in New Zealand improve, departures to Australia are forecast to ease in the latter part of 2012. Arrivals from the rest of the world (excluding Australia) are also forecast to increase over the next year, but at a slower rate than the increase in departures to Australia. The result will be a net loss of 4,000 people over the March 2012 year, with a return to a net gain of about 6,000 in the following year.

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